Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments
Connecting the Dots
$69.99 (P)
- Authors:
- Gheorghe Tecuci, George Mason University, Virginia
- David A. Schum, George Mason University, Virginia
- Dorin Marcu, George Mason University, Virginia
- Mihai Boicu, George Mason University, Virginia
- Date Published: August 2016
- availability: In stock
- format: Hardback
- isbn: 9781107122604
$
69.99
(P)
Hardback
-
This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.
Read more- Covers several vital topics that are overlooked in other works
- Follows a hands-on approach to learning intelligence analysis
- Provides an advanced analytical tool, Disciple-CD, for complex evidence-based hypothesis analysis
Reviews & endorsements
"Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments is a valuable resource for those interested in improving intelligence analysis. It provides both prospective and current intelligence analysts with an easy to read and understand explanation of a complex process, along with suggestions for how to more effectively implement that process. The examples from intelligence analysis and comparison to similar practices in other fields such as medicine, law, and law enforcement help the reader better understand how the interplay of evidence, hypotheses and arguments can develop in different contexts. In that sense, this book provides a wonderful platform for improving intelligence analysis by learning and employing best scientific reasoning practices."
Stephen Marrin, James Madison University, VirginiaSee more reviews"This is an important work in several ways. The authors both help readers learn the basics and give advanced training in the craft of analytical reasoning by providing sophisticated tools to guide understanding of its strengths, its probabilistic nature, and its limitations. "Deep" learning is what distinguishes experts from gifted amateurs; this book will help amateurs develop expert habits through guided learning and practice. I would not only recommend this book for students of intelligence, but also for students of law, journalism, and national security. The first several chapters should be mandatory reading for 'customers' and critics of intelligence, including policymakers, legislators, and professional journalists who are quick to ask "why didn’t you connect the dots?" while they themselves probably have no idea how difficult that may be."
Mark T. Clark, Director, National Security Studies, California State University, San Bernardino, and President, Association for the Study of Middle East and Africa (ASMEA)Customer reviews
Not yet reviewed
Be the first to review
Review was not posted due to profanity
×Product details
- Date Published: August 2016
- format: Hardback
- isbn: 9781107122604
- dimensions: 261 x 184 x 17 mm
- weight: 0.76kg
- contains: 111 colour illus. 23 tables
- availability: In stock
Table of Contents
1. Intelligence analysis: 'connecting the dots'
2. Marshaling thoughts and evidence for imaginative analysis
3. Disciple-CD: a cognitive assistant for connecting the dots
4. Evidence
5. Divide and conquer: a necessary approach to complex analysis
6. Assessing the believability of evidence
7. Chains of custody
8. Recurrent substance-blind combinations of evidence
9. Major sources of uncertainty in masses of evidence
10. Assessing and reporting uncertainty: some alternative methods
11. Analytic bias
12. Learning and reusing analytic expertise: beyond Disciple-CD.-
General Resources
Welcome to the resources site
Here you will find free-of-charge online materials to accompany this book. The range of materials we provide across our academic and higher education titles are an integral part of the book package whether you are a student, instructor, researcher or professional.
Find resources associated with this title
Type Name Unlocked * Format Size Showing of
*This title has one or more locked files and access is given only to instructors adopting the textbook for their class. We need to enforce this strictly so that solutions are not made available to students. To gain access to locked resources you either need first to sign in or register for an account.
These resources are provided free of charge by Cambridge University Press with permission of the author of the corresponding work, but are subject to copyright. You are permitted to view, print and download these resources for your own personal use only, provided any copyright lines on the resources are not removed or altered in any way. Any other use, including but not limited to distribution of the resources in modified form, or via electronic or other media, is strictly prohibited unless you have permission from the author of the corresponding work and provided you give appropriate acknowledgement of the source.
If you are having problems accessing these resources please email lecturers@cambridge.org
Sorry, this resource is locked
Please register or sign in to request access. If you are having problems accessing these resources please email lecturers@cambridge.org
Register Sign in» Proceed