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Decisions under Uncertainty
Probabilistic Analysis for Engineering Decisions

$85.99 (P)

  • Author: Ian Jordaan, Memorial University of Newfoundland
  • Date Published: July 2011
  • availability: Available
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9780521369978

$ 85.99 (P)

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About the Authors
  • To better understand the core concepts of probability and to see how they affect real-world decisions about design and system performance, engineers and scientists might want to ask themselves the following questions: What exactly is meant by probability? What is the precise definition of the 100-year load and how is it calculated? What is an “extremal” probability distribution? What is the Bayesian approach? How is utility defined? How do games fit into probability theory? What is entropy? How do I apply these ideas in risk analysis? Starting from the most basic assumptions, this book develops a coherent theory of probability and broadens it into applications in decision theory, design, and risk analysis. This book is written for engineers and scientists interested in probability and risk. It can be used by undergraduates, graduate students, or practicing engineers.

    • Covers risk from an engineering perspective
    • Lots of real engineering case studies
    • Assumes only basic maths as prerequisite
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    Reviews & endorsements

    "This book will clearly contribute to the much needed dissemination of decision analysis techniques into engineering education and practice. It is written in a manner that makes the material accessible to a wide audience - ranging from undergraduate and graduate students to practicing engineers. The text is pedagogically organized, starting with the fundamental concepts and containing a multitude of examples and exercises. The comprehensiveness of the book is striking. In an impressive manner the author manages to address the beginner as well as providing useful knowledge on advanced topics such as game theory and entropy...In summary, the author has succeeded in providing an up-to-date and comprehensive text on decision techniques that ought to be extensively used in engineering education and practice. In particular, the current trend toward performance-based engineering and advanced simulation models should clearly be complemented with probabilistic analysis to achieve optimized designs."
    Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering

    "Ian Jordaan ... has made an important contribution to humanity by writing this comprehensive and thoroughly readable textbook on the subject. The book combines the subjects of probability, utility, game theory, entropy, inference, risk, and linear algebra into a single, logical package. The derivations of concepts such as probability and utility are very thoughtful, often beginning with first principles, and include appealing historical references. The discussions on addressing objective and subjective valuations are not only thoughtful but also insightful. For seasoned professionals who believe they have no need for such derivations or historical context, it's easy enough to skip a few pages ahead and dive deep into the subject matter at hand. Each chapter concludes with a diverse set of exercises, ranging from the purely theoretical to the highly practical. Decisions Under Uncertainty appears to be ideally suited for most graduate engineering programs. Professional educators should give serious thought to increasing the emphasis on decision-making, making use of textbooks like this one in their engineering curricula. In addition, Decisions Under Uncertainty is something that even seasoned engineers interesting in honing or refreshing their professional skills should read. After reading the book one is much better prepared to recognize and effectively address the decision-making process in ambiguous situations where there is considerable uncertainty and the risks are high."
    Marine Technology

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    Product details

    • Date Published: July 2011
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9780521369978
    • length: 690 pages
    • dimensions: 244 x 170 x 35 mm
    • weight: 1.08kg
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    1. Uncertainty and decision-making
    2. The concept of probability
    3. Distributions and expectation
    4. The concept of utility
    5. Games and optimization
    6. Entropy
    7. Mathematical aspects
    8. Exchangeability and inference
    9. Extremes
    10. Risk, safety and reliability
    11. Data and simulation
    12. Conclusion

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    Decisions under Uncertainty

    Ian Jordaan

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    Ian Jordaan, Memorial University of Newfoundland

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