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Probability and Evidence

$24.99 (G)

Part of Cambridge Philosophy Classics

Colin Howson
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  • Date Published: August 2016
  • availability: In stock
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9781316507018

$ 24.99 (G)

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About the Authors
  • In this influential study of central issues in the philosophy of science, Paul Horwich elaborates on an important conception of probability, diagnosing the failure of previous attempts to resolve these issues as stemming from a too-rigid conception of belief. Adopting a Bayesian strategy, he argues for a probabilistic approach, yielding a more complete understanding of the characteristics of scientific reasoning and methodology. Presented in a fresh twenty-first-century series livery, and including a specially commissioned preface written by Colin Howson, illuminating its enduring importance and relevance to philosophical enquiry, this engaging work has been revived for a new generation of readers.

    • Unique to Cambridge, this classic book has been revived and rebranded for a twenty-first-century readership
    • Presents Paul Horwich's probabilistic approach to scientific reasoning and methodology
    • Offers resolutions of central issues in the philosophy of science
    • Features a specially commissioned preface written by Colin Howson
    Read more

    Reviews & endorsements

    '… the strongest and most influential parts of Probability and Evidence are Horwich’s solutions to various puzzles about scientific reasoning … the book might very well still be of considerable interest to those who are looking for an engaging and readable introduction to the topic of scientific reasoning from a Bayesian perspective.' Finnur Dellsén, Metascience

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    Product details

    • Date Published: August 2016
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9781316507018
    • length: 146 pages
    • dimensions: 231 x 153 x 11 mm
    • weight: 0.23kg
    • contains: 10 b/w illus. 5 tables
    • availability: In stock
  • Table of Contents

    Preface to this edition Colin Howson
    Part I. Methodology:
    1. Introduction
    2. Aspects of the scientific method
    3. A taste of Bayesianism
    Part II. Probability:
    4. The primitive theory
    5. Subjectivism
    6. The rationalist interpretation
    7. The logical interpretation
    8. The evidential state
    9. The empirical interpretation
    Part III. Confirmation:
    10. Explications
    11. The paradox
    12. A Bayesian pseudo-solution to the problem of induction
    13. Projection
    Part IV. Induction: Section 1. The Nature of Inductive Inference
    Section 2. Conditions of Rationality:
    14. Demonstrable reliability
    15. The demonstrable reliability of c+
    16. Immodesty
    17. Audacity
    Section 3. The Justification of Induction:
    18. The impossibility of a noncircular rationale
    19. Inductive demonstration of reliability
    20. Semantic justification
    Part V. Prediction:
    21. Surprise
    22. Severe tests
    23. Ad hoc hypothesis
    24. Prediction versus accommodation
    Part VI. Evidence:
    25. The evidential value of varied data
    26. The value of further data
    Part VII. Realism:
    27. Popper
    28. Realism versus instrumentalism
    29. Putnam
    30. Glymour
    31. Conclusion

  • Author

    Paul Horwich
    Paul Horwich is Professor of Philosophy at New York University. He is best known for his contributions to the philosophy of science, including a probabilistic account of scientific methodology. His most recent publications include Wittgenstein's Metaphilosophy (2012) and Truth – Meaning – Reality (2010).


    Colin Howson

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