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Incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives have presumably increased their vote percentages in recent decades, raising questions about the efficacy of elections in making members responsive. The evidence, however, indicates there has been no improvement in the electoral fortunes of incumbents in the last 50 years. Only Republicans have improved their electoral fortunes as a result of realignment. This valuable book provides a very different interpretation of how incumbents have fared in recent decades, and the interpretation is supported by non-technical data analysis and presentation.Read more
- Critical analysis of what has happened in House elections
- Unique and non-technical presentation of data
- New explanation of rise of safe seats in the House
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- Date Published: February 2009
- format: Adobe eBook Reader
- isbn: 9780511474101
- contains: 23 tables
- availability: This ISBN is for an eBook version which is distributed on our behalf by a third party.
Table of Contents
Part I. An Increased Incumbency Effect: Reconsidering Evidence:
1. An increased incumbency effect and American politics
2. The consensus about a greater incumbency effect
3. The trend in incumbent vote percentages
4. Cumulative career changes
5. The retirement slump
Part II. Realignment and the Fortunes of (Some) Incumbents:
6. An alternative framework: the role of realignment
7. A partisan view of incumbent percentages
8. The role of realignment
9. Conclusions and implications
Part III. Appendices: More Detailed Analyses of Incumbency Indicators: Appendix A. The Gelman–King estimation
Appendix B. Realignment and the retirement slump
Appendix C. The data.
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