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The Natural Rate of Unemployment

The Natural Rate of Unemployment
Reflections on 25 Years of the Hypothesis

$35.00 USD

Rod Cross, Edmund Phelps, James Tobin, Frank Hahn, Huw Dixon, Andrew Caplin, John Leahy, G. C. Archibald, Ian McDonald, Bruno Amable, Jérome Henry, Frédéric Lordon, Richard Topol, Hashem Pesaran, Ron Smith, David Peel, Alan Speight, Albert Ando, Flint Brayton, Simon Wren-Lewis, Maria Demertzis, Andrew Hughes Hallett, Meghnad Desai, Bernard Corry
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  • Date Published: May 2012
  • availability: This ISBN is for an eBook version which is distributed on our behalf by a third party.
  • format: Adobe eBook Reader
  • isbn: 9781139240932

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  • For 25 years, theory about the causes of, and possible solutions to, the problem of unemployment has been dominated by Phelps' and Friedman's natural rate of unemployment hypothesis. This postulates that the equilibrium rate of unemployment consistent with steady inflation is determined by structural variables: sustainable reductions in unemployment can be achieved only by measures to change underlying microeconomic structures, such as benefit and pay bargaining systems. Belief in the hypothesis has faltered since the 1980s, the hypothesis being unable to explain the dramatic upward shifts in European unemployment rates. These essays reflect upon the fundamental structures underlying the hypothesis, assess the related evidence, and look forwards, suggesting possible modifications. In contrast to the single rate postulated by the natural rate hypothesis, several of the contributors propose that there are ranges of unemployment rates consistent with steady inflation.

    • Focuses on the important and highly topical issue of unemployment
    • Reflects on the state of the natural rate hypothesis and points the way ahead to the emergence of a new wisdom regarding unemployment
    • Eminent list of contributors
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    Product details

    • Date Published: May 2012
    • format: Adobe eBook Reader
    • isbn: 9781139240932
    • contains: 71 b/w illus. 18 tables
    • availability: This ISBN is for an eBook version which is distributed on our behalf by a third party.
  • Table of Contents

    1. Introduction Rod Cross
    Part I. The Theoretical Framework:
    2. The origins and further development of the natural rate of unemployment Edmund Phelps
    3. The natural rate as new classical macroeconomics James Tobin
    4. Theoretical reflections on the 'natural rate of unemployment' Frank Hahn
    5. Of coconuts, decomposition and a jackass: the genealogy of the natural rate Huw Dixon
    Part II. Adjustment, Ranges of Equilibria and Hysteresis:
    6. The economics of adjustment Andrew Caplin and John Leahy
    7. Hysteresis and memory in the labour market G. C. Archibald
    8. Models of the range of equilibria Ian McDonald
    9. Hysteresis revisited: a methodological approach Bruno Amable, Jérome Henry, Frédéric Lordon and Richard Topol
    10. Is the natural rate hypothesis consistent with hysteresis? Rod Cross
    Part III. Empirical Tests and Macro Models:
    11. The natural rate hypothesis and its testable implications Hashem Pesaran and Ron Smith
    12. Non-linear dependence in unemployment, output and inflation: empirical evidence for the UK David Peel and Alan Speight
    13. Prices, wages and unemployment in the US economy: a traditional model and tests of some alternatives Albert Ando and Flint Brayton
    14. The natural rate in empirical macroeconomic models Simon Wren-Lewis
    Part IV. Political Economy:
    15. Is the natural rate of unemployment a useful concept for Europe? Maria Demertzis and Andrew Hughes Hallett
    16. The natural rate of unemployment: a fundamentalist Keynesian view Meghnad Desai
    17. Politics and the natural rate hypothesis: a historical perspective Bernard Corry.

  • Editor

    Rod Cross, University of Strathclyde

    Preface by

    Olivier Blanchard

    Contributors

    Rod Cross, Edmund Phelps, James Tobin, Frank Hahn, Huw Dixon, Andrew Caplin, John Leahy, G. C. Archibald, Ian McDonald, Bruno Amable, Jérome Henry, Frédéric Lordon, Richard Topol, Hashem Pesaran, Ron Smith, David Peel, Alan Speight, Albert Ando, Flint Brayton, Simon Wren-Lewis, Maria Demertzis, Andrew Hughes Hallett, Meghnad Desai, Bernard Corry

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