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Judgment and Decision Making

Judgment and Decision Making
An Interdisciplinary Reader

2nd Edition

£68.99

textbook

Part of Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making

Ward Edwards, J. Robert Newman, Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Kenneth R. Hammond, John A. Swets, Richard H. Thaler, Hal R. Arkes, Catherine Blumer, Ralph L. Keeney, Timothy L. McDaniels, Lewis O. Harvey Jr, Reid Hastie, Richard P. Larrick, Richard E. Nisbett, James N. Morgan, Robert H. Frank, Thomas Gilovich, Dennis T. Regan, Elizabeth F. Loftus, Nancy Pennington, Terry Connolly, Janet Doyle, Shane A. Thomas, Jay J. J. Christensen-Szalanski, James B. Bushyhead, Barbara J. McNeil, Stephen G. Pauker, Harold C. Sox Jr, David J. Getty, Ronald M. Pickett, Carl J. D'Orsi, Gary J. Gaeth, James Shanteau, Hillel J. Einhorn, David Faust, Jay Ziskin, Baruch Fischhoff, Robyn M. Dawes, Thomas R. Stewart, Cynthia M. Lusk, Jeryl L. Mumpower, Max H. Bazerman, Margaret A. Neale, Kathleen L. Valley, Edward J. Zajac, Yong Min Kim, Richard J. Zeckhauser, W. Kip Viscusi, Ann Bostrom, Marilyn Jacobs Quadrel, Paul Slovic, Peter Juslin, Maya Bar-Hillel, Gershon Ben-Shakhar, Helmut Jungermann, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Gerd Gigerenzer, Daniel G. Goldstein, Denis J. Hilton, Ben R. Slugoski, Benjamin Kleinmuntz, Lola L. Lopes, Lee Roy Beach
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  • Date Published: March 2000
  • availability: Available
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9780521626026

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About the Authors
  • Researchers in a growing number of fields - public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others - are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, jury decisions issues, and more are treated in this largely expanded volume, indicating the variety of problems - and scope in judgment and decision making. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied. The papers selected are scientific in nature, but chosen specifically to appeal to the scholar, student and layperson alike.

    • Applies research to several different disciplines
    • Well organized, with commentary and introduction
    • Completely revised from earlier edition, with two chapters specially commissioned for the book
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    Product details

    • Edition: 2nd Edition
    • Date Published: March 2000
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9780521626026
    • length: 808 pages
    • dimensions: 228 x 156 x 38 mm
    • weight: 1.11kg
    • contains: 74 b/w illus. 45 tables
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    Series preface
    Contributors
    Editors' preface to the second edition
    Part I. Introduction and Overview:
    1. Multiattribute evaluation
    2. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases
    3. Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision making
    4. Enhancing diagnostic decisions
    Part II. Applications in Public Policy:
    5. Illusions and mirages in public policy
    6. The psychology of sunk cost
    7. Value-focused thinking about strategic decisions at BC Hydro
    8. Making better use of scientific knowledge: separating truth from justice
    Part III. Applications in Economics:
    9. Choices, values and frames
    10. Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory
    11. Does studying economics inhibit cooperation?
    Part IV. Legal Applications:
    12. Leading questions and the eyewitness report
    13. Explanation-based decision making
    14. Decision theory, reasonable doubt and the utility of erroneous acquittals
    Part V. Medical Applications:
    15. Capturing policy in hearing-aid decisions by audiologists
    16. Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting
    17. On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies
    18. Enhanced interpretation of diagnostic images
    Part VI. Experts:
    19. Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers
    20. Expert judgment: some necessary conditions and an example
    21. The expert witness in psychology and psychiatry
    Part VII. Forecasting and Prediction:
    22. What forecast (seems to) mean
    23. Proper and improper linear models
    24. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: implications for research and the improvement of forecasts
    Part VIII. Bargaining and negotiation:
    25. The judgment policies of negotiators and the structure of negotiation problems
    26. The effect of agents and mediators on negotiation outcomes
    Part IX. Risk:
    27. Risk within reason
    28. Risk perception and communication
    29. Perceived risk, trust and democracy
    Part X. Research Methods:
    30. Value elicitation: is there anything in there?
    31. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items
    32. The a priori case against graphology: methodological and conceptual issues
    Part XI. Critiques and New Directions I:
    33. The two camps on rationality Helmut Jungermann
    34. On cognitive illusions and their implications
    35. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality
    36. Judgment and decision making in social context: discourse processes and rational inference
    Part XII. Critiques and New Directions II:
    37. Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach
    38. Nonconsequentialist decisions
    39. Algebra and process in the modeling of risky choice
    40. The theory of image theory: an examination of the central conceptual structure
    Author index
    Subject index.

  • Editors

    Terry Connolly, University of Arizona

    Hal R. Arkes, Ohio University

    Kenneth R. Hammond, University of Colorado, Boulder

    Contributors

    Ward Edwards, J. Robert Newman, Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Kenneth R. Hammond, John A. Swets, Richard H. Thaler, Hal R. Arkes, Catherine Blumer, Ralph L. Keeney, Timothy L. McDaniels, Lewis O. Harvey Jr, Reid Hastie, Richard P. Larrick, Richard E. Nisbett, James N. Morgan, Robert H. Frank, Thomas Gilovich, Dennis T. Regan, Elizabeth F. Loftus, Nancy Pennington, Terry Connolly, Janet Doyle, Shane A. Thomas, Jay J. J. Christensen-Szalanski, James B. Bushyhead, Barbara J. McNeil, Stephen G. Pauker, Harold C. Sox Jr, David J. Getty, Ronald M. Pickett, Carl J. D'Orsi, Gary J. Gaeth, James Shanteau, Hillel J. Einhorn, David Faust, Jay Ziskin, Baruch Fischhoff, Robyn M. Dawes, Thomas R. Stewart, Cynthia M. Lusk, Jeryl L. Mumpower, Max H. Bazerman, Margaret A. Neale, Kathleen L. Valley, Edward J. Zajac, Yong Min Kim, Richard J. Zeckhauser, W. Kip Viscusi, Ann Bostrom, Marilyn Jacobs Quadrel, Paul Slovic, Peter Juslin, Maya Bar-Hillel, Gershon Ben-Shakhar, Helmut Jungermann, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Gerd Gigerenzer, Daniel G. Goldstein, Denis J. Hilton, Ben R. Slugoski, Benjamin Kleinmuntz, Lola L. Lopes, Lee Roy Beach

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