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Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards

Lisa J. Hill, Steve Sparks, Jonathan Rougier, K. J. Beven, W. P. Aspinall, R. M. Cooke, T. L. Edwards, P. G. Challenor, J. Freer, J. Neal, G. Schumann, J. Hall, P. Bates, T. K. Hincks, E. A. Holcombe, M. Kern, H. S. Crosweller, B. D. Malamud, M. J. Wooster, T. J. Lynham, N. A. Chapman, B. E. Hill, D. J. Kerridge, J. Pooley, C. A. Taylor, G. L. Hickey, A. Hart, S. Cornell, M. Jackson, J. Wilmshurst
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  • Date Published: March 2018
  • availability: Available
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9781108446679


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About the Authors
  • Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

    • Draws on the authors' first-hand expert experience of recent hazard events, providing cutting-edge, topical information
    • Reduces ambiguity by employing a clearly defined and controlled vocabulary, applicable for widespread use across all hazard types
    • Explores the wider societal implications of natural hazard risk management, providing important context for the complexities of hazard interventions
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    Product details

    • Date Published: March 2018
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9781108446679
    • length: 586 pages
    • dimensions: 245 x 170 x 30 mm
    • weight: 1.1kg
    • contains: 50 b/w illus. 5 tables
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    List of contributors
    1. Risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards Lisa J. Hill, Steve Sparks and Jonathan Rougier
    2. Quantifying natural hazard risk Jonathan Rougier
    3. Model limitations: the sources and implications of epistemic uncertainty Jonathan Rougier and K. J. Beven
    4. Expert elicitation and judgment W. P. Aspinall and R. M. Cooke
    5. Risk and uncertainty in hydrometeorological hazards T. L. Edwards and P. G. Challenor
    6. Hydrometeorological hazards under future climate change T. L. Edwards and P. G. Challenor
    7. Hydrological flood uncertainty and risk research J. Freer, K. J. Beven, J. Neal, G. Schumann, J. Hall and P. Bates
    8. Uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment W. P. Aspinall
    9. Landslide and avalanche hazards T. K. Hincks, W. P. Aspinall, Steve Sparks, E. A. Holcombe and M. Kern
    10. Tsunami hazard and risk T. K. Hincks, Steve Sparks and W. P. Aspinall
    11. Risk and uncertainty assessment of volcanic hazards Steve Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, H. S. Crosweller and T. K. Hincks
    12. Risk assessment and management of wildfires T. K. Hincks, B. D. Malamud, Steve Sparks, M. J. Wooster and T. J. Lynham
    13. Technological facilities, infrastructure and hazardous materials, including some notes on space weather Steve Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, N. A. Chapman, B. E. Hill, D. J. Kerridge, J. Pooley and C. A. Taylor
    14. Statistical aspects of risk characterization in ecotoxicology G. L. Hickey and A. Hart
    15. Social science perspectives on natural hazards risk and uncertainty S. Cornell and M. Jackson
    16. Human responses to natural hazard risk: considerations for improving the effectiveness of risk management systems H. S. Crosweller and J. Wilmshurst

  • Editors

    Jonathan Rougier, University of Bristol
    Jonathan Rougier is a Reader in Statistics at the University of Bristol. He specialises in uncertainty assessment for complex systems, notably environmental systems such as climate and natural hazards. He has made several important contributions in the statistical field of computer experiments, including general approaches for representing model limitations, informal and formal approaches to model calibration and multivariate emulation for expensive models, such as climate models. Dr Rougier's recent and current collaborations include climate prediction and palaeo-climate reconstruction, ice-sheet modelling and sea-level rise, and inference for dynamical systems such as glacial cycles, avalanches and hydrocarbon reservoirs.

    Steve Sparks, University of Bristol
    Steve Sparks is a Professorial Research Fellow at the University of Bristol. He is a volcanologist with interests in hazard and risk assessment, and his research includes the physics of volcanic eruptions and fluid dynamics of hazardous volcanic flows. He is the world's most highly cited scientist in volcanology and a former President of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior. Professor Sparks has been involved in hazard and risk assessment with advice for governments for volcanic emergencies, including during the eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and the emergencies related to volcanic ash from Iceland in 2010. He was on the planning committee of the Integrated Research into Disasters Reduction programme of the International Council for Science (ICSU) and is currently joint leader of the Global Volcano Model project.

    Lisa J. Hill, University of Bristol
    Lisa Hill is Research Development Manager at the University of Bristol and also works as an independent researcher. She has worked with researchers to explore the interface between environmental science and social science for over ten years, initially at the UK Research Councils and later at the University of Bristol. Dr Hill's research interests are in human geography, archaeology and the environment, using non-representational theory to explore relations between people and the material world.


    Lisa J. Hill, Steve Sparks, Jonathan Rougier, K. J. Beven, W. P. Aspinall, R. M. Cooke, T. L. Edwards, P. G. Challenor, J. Freer, J. Neal, G. Schumann, J. Hall, P. Bates, T. K. Hincks, E. A. Holcombe, M. Kern, H. S. Crosweller, B. D. Malamud, M. J. Wooster, T. J. Lynham, N. A. Chapman, B. E. Hill, D. J. Kerridge, J. Pooley, C. A. Taylor, G. L. Hickey, A. Hart, S. Cornell, M. Jackson, J. Wilmshurst

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